Assessing the Potential Impacts of Urban Expansion on Hydrological Ecosystem Services in a Rapidly Urbanizing Lake Basin in China

Hydrological ecosystem services (HESs) such as water purification and supply are important for providing other drinking water, recreation, human health. Land use change caused by urbanization is a direct driver affecting the provision of HESs. The quantification integration HES into watershed management urban planning have become increasingly important. In this study, we highlighted an InVEST CLUE-S models to simulate predict future changes in rapidly urbanizing lake basin, namely Nansihu Lake basin China. spatiotemporal patterns HESs including yield, purification, sediment export past five decades (from 1980 2015) been revealed through our integrated modeling approach. Furthermore, land scenarios till 2030 were developed using use, topography, climate, soil data. It found that due rapid expansion land, total nitrogen (TN), phosphorus (TP) has increased 5.5%, 7.38%, 7.02%, respectively, while decreased 4%. As result, risks flooding quality degradation increased. Under hybrid ecological farmland redline policy (EFRP) scenario, all significantly improved compared level 2015. This research can help environmental protection basin.